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  The analytics staff continued to grow with the hiring of another full-time quantitative analyst in September of 2014, a former blogger named Stuart Wallace. Wallace was to be based in Bradenton, Florida, year-round and would work directly with the club’s minor league and player-development staff based there. After seeing the benefit of having the major league staff engage daily with analysts, the Pirates wanted their minor league and player-development staff to have a similar resource.

  The reach of analytics is expanding to the minor league level as a number of teams—including the Pirates—have equipped their minor league ballparks with PITCHf/x and TrackMan technology. Since clubs had seen the value in pitch tracking at the major league level, they now wanted it at the minor league level to measure everything from curveball movement to prospects’ pitch-framing ability. Moreover, with the player-tracking system Statcast slated to be operating in every major league stadium by 2015, teams will only be adding more analysts to make sense of the new crush of data, which is expected to grow exponentially.

  Perhaps most important to the Pirates’ efforts in 2014 was their continued focus on marrying their new-school and old-school personnel. After having Fox be a part of planning meetings with Hurdle in the 2012 season, and then having both Fox and Fitzgerald involved in all home strategy sessions and on teleconferences for meetings on the road in 2013, the Pirates took it a step further in 2014 by having Fitzgerald travel with the club on the majority of its road trips. Fitzgerald had made about half the trips in 2013. The Pirates always wanted to have an analyst in the clubhouse to counsel, making them the first known major league team to have a quantitative analyst among its traveling party.

  On that celebratory night in Atlanta, as the party wound down and the champagne was exhausted, Pirates second baseman Neil Walker found Mike Fitzgerald standing quietly in the corner of the clubhouse away from the epicenter of the celebration, where the players and coaches were massed. Walker took a Budweiser from an ice-filled bin and walked toward Fitzgerald, dousing the analyst with beer. Fitzgerald, the math genius who had never played professionally, and Walker, drafted out of high school and having spent years in the minors before emerging as an everyday major league player, laughed and celebrated together. The dichotomy between them and yet their acceptance of each other was a snapshot of how far the Pirates had come in creating a culture of respect, a culture that would allow important data to be embraced.

  While much was similar about the 2013 and 2014 seasons, as the Pirates tried to reinforce and deepen the sophistication of successful strategies of the previous campaign, one dramatic change played a salient role in returning the Pirates to the postseason.

  Just as the Pirates adopted a strategy to improve each of their pitchers’ performance in 2013 by creating more ground balls hit into the shifts, in 2014 hitting coach Jeff Branson got his hitters to collectively buy into a new hitting approach. The focus was less on trying to smash fastballs into the seats and more about using the whole field, not trying to pull pitches on the outside of the plate, but trying to hit them to the opposite field, which would result in more line drives, and being more competitive and contact-focused with two strikes. The Pirates cheated on too many fastballs in 2013 and were susceptible to getting out in front and swinging and missing at off-speed pitches. It’s one reason why they fell in the 2013 NLDS as they flailed at curveballs and changeups from Cardinals starting pitchers Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha. But in 2014, after adopting the new approach, the Pirates jumped to third in on-base percentage in baseball from eighteenth in 2013—despite not playing in the American League, where the designated hitter bats in place of the pitcher. Despite no significant external additions outside of trading for part-time first baseman Ike Davis, the Pirates improved from twentieth in runs scored in 2013 to tenth in 2014. The Pirates improved from eleventh in the National League in two-strike, on-base plus slugging percentage in 2013 to first in 2014.

  The communication of ideas within the organization was better than just about every other team. When Hurdle hired assistant hitting coach Jeff Branson to fill the void left by Jay Bell, who left after the 2013 season for Cincinnati, Hurdle was criticized for making a “cheap” hire. But Branson had the trust of the players, having worked with so many of them at the minor league levels where he was a longtime minor league hitting coach. His message of competing better with two strikes and using the whole field was not unique, what impressed rival NL scouts and executives was how he got an entire lineup of various personalities, skill sets, egos, and backgrounds to buy into a systematic approach. The improved offense helped make up for pitching performances from the bull pen and the starting pitchers that were not quite as good in 2014 as they had been 2013.

  But the hitting approach worked not just because of Branson, but also because of Russell Martin, who had the respect of his teammates. He was a key veteran presence in the clubhouse, and when younger players saw Martin buying in to trading power for contact, they followed suit. In 2014, Martin choked up on his bat with two strikes to be quicker to the ball and to better avoid strikeouts. He focused less on power and more on putting the ball in play and now offered obvious value.

  In 2014, Martin cemented his status as the top free agent signing in club history. He continued to add value not just with his pitch framing, throwing arm, and uncanny way of connecting with thirteen different personalities on the pitching staff, but also with his bat. Not even the Pirates’ analysts saw this coming. Martin finished the season with a .402 on-base percentage, the fourth best on-base mark in the sport had he had enough plate appearances to qualify. He finished with a career-best 5.3 wins-above-replacement season, the twenty-first best in baseball. It’s also worth noting that WAR is an accumulative stat, and the twenty players ranked above Martin had played at least 29 more games than him. In his two years as a Pirate, Martin produced 9.4 WAR, or a value of about $50 million on the free agent market, yet the Pirates had paid only $17 million for two years of Martin. The upturn in his offensive performance helped Pittsburghers appreciate him, but the city had also learned that he brought value in ways that could not be measured, from his mound visits and pitch sequencing, to the standard of work ethic he set in the clubhouse. They also loved his enthusiasm and competitive nature. He made the game fun.

  The appreciation for Martin was heard as much as it was seen in the ninth inning of the Pirates’ 2014 wild-card game versus the San Francisco Giants. While there was another “blackout” crowd at PNC Park, Giants ace Madison Bumgarner had quieted the Pirates bats—and the crowd—for much of the night. It was in Pittsburgh, where Bumgarner began is historic 2014 postseason performance. He was a few pitches from completing a masterful shutout effort, as the Giants held an 8–0 lead in the ninth inning, when Martin was introduced by the public address announcer. The atmosphere of the game was starkly different from a year earlier, but the silence was broken in the ninth inning as Martin walked toward the plate for perhaps his final at bat as a Pirate. Martin was to be a free agent after the season and had greatly increased his value. The crowd knew that this might be the last time they saw him wearing PIRATES embroidered across his chest. Just as with the “Kway-toe” chant a year earlier against the Reds, the chorus started at some unidentified ground zero with one voice exclaiming, “Re-sign Russ.… Re-sign Russ,” and it spread like wildfire, the chant roared throughout the stadium. The fans that had once questioned the signing of Martin now understood his total value and that he was an integral part of the Pirates’ two straight play-off appearances.

  A glassy-eyed Martin said afterward when surrounded by reporters that it was one of the “coolest” moments of his career. Martin had never before been embraced the way he was in Pittsburgh. In New York and Los Angeles he was just another guy in the shadow of stars. In Pittsburgh, he was beloved as much as the 2013 NL MVP Andrew McCutchen. Perhaps that moment was the greatest validation for the Pirates’ big data approach. That emotional outpouring was not enough to keep Martin in Pittsburgh
. After the 2014 season, Martin entered free agency and signed a five-year, $82 million deal with the Toronto Blue Jays. The contract suggested that the industry saw the magic Martin worked with the Pirates, and that defense was no longer being under-valued in the game.

  Fitzgerald played a big part in bringing Martin to Pittsburgh. He found the mathematical component that led the Pirates to Martin’s hidden talents. But a magical intangible remained in how Martin made every pitcher better, and how he always seemed to rise to the moment. His standard of passion and of work ethic, and even the way he organized the clubhouse’s music playlists, also had value. He added to clubhouse chemistry. There’s not yet a way to measure those traits, though some believe the future of analytics will be to focus on soft science. Perhaps much can be gleaned in quantifying psychology and chemistry, where soft-science meanings might be hidden in an exponentially growing stack of data. But no matter how adept we become at measuring the game, there will always be a mystery to it and there will always be those, such as Fox and Fitzgerald, seeking to explain that magic.

  After the Pirates’ loss in the wild-card game, the clubhouse was subdued. A long season had abruptly ended. Players exchanged well-wishes, hugs, and handshakes as they cleared out their lockers and headed their separate ways to off-season homes scattered across the country. While the Pirates had again finished as one of the best teams in the sport on one of the smallest payrolls, only one team in the sport—the World Series champion Giants—did not have their season end on a sour, somber note.

  As the clubhouse slowly emptied, Fitzgerald emerged from the video room. He was in a hurry but stopped to reflect with a reporter on the season. He did not seem depressed. If anything, he seemed eager to get started again. He felt the team’s best days were ahead. The Pirates had a talented, young core and could perhaps be even better in 2015, 2016, and beyond, if of course Fitzgerald and Fox could continue to find underappreciated free agents and stratagems to supplement the roster. After a brief conversation Fitzgerald continued on his way and vanished around a corner in search of the next big thing, another hidden advantage. In baseball’s big data age, there is no off-season, there is no end to the quest of identifying the next big thing.

  ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

  I had the good fortune—and timing—to be hired by the Tribune-Review to cover the Pirates in 2013. During my first year on the beat, like a lot of folks in Pittsburgh, I was having trouble understanding the surprising success of the Pirates during the first half of the season. After all, the Pirates had not gone out and purchased a bunch of free agent stars. Their farm system had not suddenly graduated a number of talented young players to the majors. As I spent time around the team, I was impressed by the club’s culture, its willingness to accept new data-based ideas. While I had covered college athletics for most of my journalism career, I have always been fascinated by sabermetrics thought in baseball. In Pittsburgh, more than in most places around the game, I saw these data-based theories getting to the field. I’ve always loved writing about trends, new technologies, and challenging conventional wisdom. And trends, technology, and challenging tradition reached a confluence with the 2013 Pirates in the three-river city.

  I suspected some of the surprising success of the Pirates was tied to the club’s defensive shifting. In the early months of the season the team’s increased commitment to radical defensive alignment was obvious from the press box or television screen. My digging into the shifting and understanding how it worked in concert with a pitching plan led me to writing an article titled “Shifting Gears” in September 2013 for the Tribune-Review. I received tremendous feedback on the story. I began to think the Pirates’ story was too important, too big, to be confined to one newspaper article or even a series of articles.

  Many people involved with this book deserve a hearty thank-you, starting with my managing editor at the Tribune-Review, Duke Maas. Not only did Duke hire me, he gave me the freedom to pursue this idea when I approached with him my idea for this book in November 2013.

  This book also did not come to fruition without the Pirates’ willingness to draw back the curtain.

  Big Data Baseball is not about one key actor or one transcendent genius. This story is about an entire organization. It is about the power of collaboration. I am thankful to all those in the organization—front-office officials, coaches, players, and scouts—who were willing to be interviewed for this project. I spoke to dozens of people in the organization, some named in the book, and some not, but they all played a role in this story. I am specifically grateful to the Pirates general manager, Neal Huntington, manager Clint Hurdle, and quantitative analysts Dan Fox and Mike Fitzgerald, who were willing to discuss some of the strategies and practices that led to their success. They could have shut the door, but instead they allowed me to tell what I think is an important story of progress and teamwork.

  Big Data Baseball isn’t just about the Pirates. It’s about the thirst for knowledge from folks such as John Dewan and hundreds of hobbyists. Their passion combined with improved technology and computing power led to baseball’s big data age. I constantly badgered Dewan and his BIS president Ben Jedlovec for data for the better part of a year, and to their credit they kept cooperating. Ryan Zander and the folks at Sportvision, which gave the sport its first true big data tool, PITCHf/x, were also incredibly helpful to me in this project. The game’s bloggers and hobbyists were also an incredible resource. I believe we are in a golden age for baseball writing, in large part because of the data-based writing. Incredible research is going on at a variety of sites across the Web. I often referenced these amazingly talented and bright analysts, the types of folks once barred from the game that are now integral parts of many major league front offices. In particular, data-base journalist Sean Lahman answered my questions and offered support on this project.

  Getting a book from a proposal to realization is about much more than having an idea. It’s imperative the idea find the right and able hands.

  I will be forever indebted to fellow author and Grantland baseball writer Jonah Keri. Jonah helped get the proposal for this book in the right hands. For a first-time author, one of the most difficult steps in getting a book published is to get your proposal or manuscript to a publisher. Jonah was willing to pass along my proposal to the Susan Rabiner Literary Agency, which represents him. At Rabiner my proposal found its way to Eric Nelson. Eric had no idea who I was, but he believed in the idea and sold the proposal.

  Eric led me to Flatiron Books and Bob Miller. Ultimately, Big Data Baseball wouldn’t have happened without Bob’s believing in a rookie author and the idea. Bob also named the book! I worked closely with Flatiron Books editor Jasmine Faustino, who was extremely patient and helped mold the book into a better product. Jasmine’s fingerprints are all over this book.

  I have many other people to thank and won’t be able to name them all, but I must start with Mom and Dad. Dad gave me a love of baseball and statistics, and Mom gave me an appreciation for the arts. This book is an intersection of those interests. They were also early—and free—copy editors and have always been there to listen and support. No one sacrificed more than my wonderful wife, Rebecca. When you commit to a book, it requires a lot of time alone and brief periods of insanity. Reporting and writing this book took place over a year, in addition to my day job, and I’ll always be grateful for Rebecca’s total support. She was the first to read and critique early versions. She was always available as a sounding board. I am very aware of my good fortune in finding such a partner.

  REFERENCES

  Much of this book was based upon original reporting, interviews, and firsthand observations. Big Data Baseball was also influenced by my reporting for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, and I have cited below a handful of articles that were critical in the development of this book. Also included are a number of other publications from which I drew quotes, critical facts, and inspiration.

  Arangure, Jr., Jorge. “Former ‘phenom’ Hurdle finds true cal
ling as manager.” ESPN The Magazine, October 23, 2007.

  Bell, Robert; Koren, Yehuda; Volinksy Chris. “Statistics can find you a movie.”ATT.com http://www.research.att.com/articles/featured_stories/2010_01/2010_02_netflix_article.html?fbid=vA7w673gpqL.

  Burjos Jr., Adrian. Cuban Star. New York: Hill and Wang, 2011.

  Bowman, Bob, and Joe Inzerillo. “MLBAM: Putting the ‘D’ in Data.” SloanSportsConference.com, March 1, 2014. http://www.sloansportsconference.com/?p=13950.

  Calcaterra, Craig. “Dan Turkenkopf got a job with a major league team. This tells us something.” HardballTalk, NBCSports.com, June 16, 2013. http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/01/16/dan-turkenkopf-got-a-job-with-a-major-league-team-this-tells-us-something/.

  Cook, Ron. “Cook: Pirates manager’s goal is to make a difference every day.” Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, September 25, 2013.

  Daugherty, Paul. “How Pirates’ Morton fine-tuned his motion and saved his career.” Sports Illustrated, June 5, 2011. http://www.si.com/more-sports/2011/06/15/charlie-mortonpirates.

  Dewan, John. “To shift or not to shift.” Bill James Online, March 30, 2012. http://www.billjamesonline.com/to_shift_or_not_to_shift/.

  Fast, Mike. “Spinning Yarn: Removing the Mask—Encore Presentation.” Baseball Prospectus, September 24, 2011. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15093.

  Fox, Dan. “Schrödinger’s Bat: Simple Fielding Runs Version 1.0.” Baseball Prospectus, January 24, 2008. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7072.

  Friend, Tom. “Love Clint.” ESPN.com, September 30, 2013. http://espn.go.com/mlb/playoffs/2013/story/_/id/9726637/pirates-manager-clint-hurdle-inspiring-others-daily.